Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains 2016 Election

The well-worn refrain of the 2016 election was that those left behind economically shifted preferences to vote for the Republican candidate in 2016. Based on representative probability samples of the same individuals interviewed in October 2012 and again in October 2016, we find no evidence that those who were left behind were more likely to vote for the Republican candidate in 2016 relative to 2012. Job loss, lack of financial recovery and even anxiety about future financial difficulties did not predict a shift toward supporting Trump, nor did being personally harmed by trade. Instead, anxieties about the status of dominant groups within America, and the status of America in the larger world drove defections to Trump.